|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]王娟,戴凤威,方博.煤矿事故应急响应的风险决策研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(6):21-26.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.06.003]
 WANG Juan,DAI Fengwei,FANG Bo.Research on risk decisionmaking of emergency response to coal mine accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(6):21-26.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.06.003]
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煤矿事故应急响应的风险决策研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年6期
页码:
21-26
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2018-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on risk decisionmaking of emergency response to coal mine accidents
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-06-0021-06
作者:
王娟1戴凤威2方博2
(1. 辽宁工程技术大学 工商管理学院,辽宁 葫芦岛 125000;2. 辽宁工程技术大学 安全科学与工程学院,辽宁 葫芦岛 125000)
Author(s):
WANG Juan1 DAI Fengwei2 FANG Bo2
(1. School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125000, China;2. School of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125000, China)
关键词:
煤矿事故应急响应风险决策后悔理论犹豫模糊集
Keywords:
coal mine accident emergency response risk decisionmaking regret theory hesitant fuzzy set
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.06.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提高煤矿事故应急响应的有效性,充分考虑决策者后悔规避的心理行为和决策信息的犹豫模糊性,提出一种基于后悔理论和犹豫模糊集的煤矿事故应急响应风险决策方法。首先,定义犹豫模糊效用函数,据此将犹豫模糊风险矩阵转化为以精确值表示的综合效用矩阵;其次,依据后悔理论,分别计算每种情景下实施不同应急预案的后悔值,并进一步将综合效用值和后悔值进行集成,得到各项应急预案的感知效用,依据感知效用的大小确定应急预案的排序;最后,通过煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故应急响应实例说明方法的可行性。结果表明:提出的方法可以有效克服决策者有限理性和决策意见出现分歧时对决策结果的影响,可为煤矿事故应急响应决策提供参考和借鉴。
Abstract:
To improve the effectiveness of emergency response to the coal mine accidents, a risk decisionmaking method of emergency response to the coal mine accidents based on the regret theory and hesitant fuzzy set was put forward with fully considering the psychological behavior of regret aversion of the decision makers and the hesitant fuzziness of decisionmaking information. Firstly, the hesitant fuzzy utility function was defined, and the hesitant fuzzy risk matrix was transformed into the aggregate utility matrix represented with the exact value accordingly. Secondly, according to the regret theory, the regret value of implementing different emergency plans under each scenario was calculated respectively. Moreover, the perceiving utility of each emergency plan was obtained by further integrating the aggregate utility value and the regret value, thus the ranking of the emergency plans was determined according to the perceiving utility. Finally, the feasibility of this method was proved through the case of emergency response to the gas explosion accident in coal mine. The results showed that the proposed method could effectively overcome the influence of the limited rationality of decision makers and the divergence of decisionmaking opinions on the decisionmaking results, and it can provide some reference for the decisionmaking of emergency response to coal mine accidents.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金(51774171)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-07-05