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[1]崔文罡,范厚明,姚茜,等.基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(12):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.016]
 CUI Wengang,FAN Houming,YAO Xi,et al.Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(12):92-98.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.016]
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基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年12期
页码:
92-98
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis on oil spill in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker based on fuzzy Bow-tie model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-12-0092-07
作者:
崔文罡1范厚明12姚茜12杨宇1马梦知12
(1.大连海事大学 交通运输管理学院,辽宁 大连 116026;2.大连海事大学 战略管理与系统规划研究所,辽宁 大连 116026)
Author(s):
CUI Wengang1 FAN Houming12 YAO Xi12 YANG Yu1 MA Mengzhi12
(1. College of Transportation Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China; 2. Institute of Strategy Management and System Planning, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian Liaoning 116026, China)
关键词:
模糊Bow-tie模型油轮靠泊装卸作业溢油风险分析
Keywords:
fuzzy Bow-tie model oil tanker berthing handling operation oil spill risk analysis
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.12.016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了全面分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油事故风险,在风险定量分析中引入了模糊Bow-tie模型,基于事故树方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业发生溢油事故的原因,采用事件树方法分析溢油事故可能导致的后果,利用模糊集理论与专家评价相结合的方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油的模糊可能值,采用层次分析法确定作业溢油后果因素的权重值,采用矩阵乘法计算溢油后果风险值。分析结果表明:油轮靠港装卸作业过程中一旦发生溢油,发生火灾+污染、爆炸+污染的概率较高。基于以上风险分析提出了油轮靠港装卸作业风险的防控措施,可为油轮靠港装卸作业安全风险管理提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to fully analyze the risk of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, the fuzzy Bow-tie model was introduced into the quantitative risk analysis. The method of fault tree analysis was applied to analyze the causes of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker, while the method of event tree analysis was used to analyze the possible consequences. The fuzzy possibility value of oil spill accident in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker was obtained by combining the fuzzy set theory with expert evaluation, then the weight values of oil spill consequence factors were determined by the method of analytic hierarchy process, and the risk value of oil spill consequences were calculated by the matrix multiplication. The results showed that there is a higher probability of both fire and pollution, and both explosion and pollution once the oil spill accident occurs. Based on the risk analysis, the prevention and control measures of risk in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker were put forward, which can provide reference for the risk management in berthing and handling operation of oil tanker.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目(61473053);辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L16AGL004);大连市科学技术计划项目(2015D12ZC181)
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-01-13